January 2007 marks the commencement of ASPO-Canada. Thanks to the encouragement by the members of the Founding Committee and by those who have agreed to serve on ASPO-Canada's Advisory Committee, we are confident of carrying out a useful task in Canada. (See Mission Statement on this website — newly launched this week). Our effort compliments and reinforces that of our counterparts in other major fossil fuel consuming countries where ASPO chapters already exist. The task is global and epoch making simply because so much is at stake. The scale is so vast that the lead time for mitigation and creative alternative modalities becomes decades long and daunting. Policy formation, followed by engineering design, then financing and then construction, is, on the scale of replacement of even half of the present rate of oil and gas depletion, a process that will take many years. To wait any longer by continuing with “fossil fuel as usual”, to defer to the current mood of denial, is to do the greatest disservice to us all — particularly to the next and ensuing generations of humankind. The global exhaustion (now at approx. the half way point) of commercial oil and gas is in itself an epic story of questionable intergenerational ethics — or lack thereof.

There is much confusion swirling about the issues of oil/gas exploration drilling, discovery rates (past and present) depletion rates and the timing of ultimate supply decline. Both optimists and pessimists abound on these transcending issues — at times preëmpting realistic analysis both at home and abroad. The good news is that the founders and advisors of ASPO-Canada do indeed come from all parts of our country and represent the most relevant of professional fields of expertise. Their experience, so vital to a comprehensive understanding of what is at stake, makes them eminently qualified to explain, and patiently to explain yet again, why globally and domestically, we already risk running out of time. The consequences of further denial and delay are what we intend to articulate in these pages in the months ahead.

The reality is that the present depletion rate of oil and gas is an “addiction” that cannot be “sustained”. Moreover, it is this very same rate of fast-track depletion of oil and gas that now demonstrably exceeds Planet Earth’s annualized rate of capacity to absorb into its “sinks” anywhere near that consequential amount (i.e., 30 billion tonnes) of CO₂. It is this very scale and, also the exceptional energy potency of oil and gas, that makes replacement so extremely difficult. Yet, replace them we must — by degree no doubt — but starting now. We must try to do so by combinations of a renewed conservation ethic; a search for efficiency and a support for all renewables: specifically sun, water, and wind. The extendables such as biomass and evolving nuclear technology will, with little doubt, also be necessary to make a much reduced carbon future possible.

Books and other papers published by ASPO-Canada supporters and advisors will be listed here from time to time along with their future postings to this site. For starters we include herewith an open letter by Chris Skrebowski (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre [ODAC] London, UK) in reply to an article by CERA. This oil industry consulting group had been attempting to rubbish ASPO for asserting that oil and gas supply/demand, will soon (within 5 years) fall into disequilibrium and chaos — the latter brought on by responses too little, too late in the period 1988-2008. His reply demonstrates the competence of those who have been active in the formation of this movement to end denial and begin living with reality. His articles, and those of colleagues such as Colin Campbell (Europe) and Matthew Simmons (US) will be posted from time to time on this site as well. They will provide a perspective from a lifetime in geology and energy industry merchant banking respectively. Their conclusions are sobering and a call to action — wherever we may live.

Not to be outdone, please note that articles and “think pieces” (even entire chapters of major books) will be posted by ASPO-Canada from the writings (and/or presentations by Canadians eminent in their respective fields. You will see works by J. David Hughes, Julian Darley, Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon, Prof. Larry Hughes, Andrew Nikiforuk and others of equal dedication and resolve. The twin problems of impending climate change and oil/gas depletion are truly global and undeniably linked. Yet, it is the spin being put on this double challenge here, at home, in Canada that we must understand in detail. How we monitor and help shape our democracy’s response to this obligation in the very next decade will be crucial and vital.

Hence ASPO-Canada and its raison d’être.

Your views and input will be welcome by way of e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Ed Schreyer
Chairman (pro tem)
ASPO-Canada