with Production, Consumption,  Population and CO2 Projections updated through mid-2009

My most current World analysis of energy consumption trends, forecasts and implications. All charts have been updated with energy production/consumption data through yearend 2008 to mid-2009, forecasts from the 2009 EIA International Energy Outlook and other organizations are included, as well as projections of regional population growth, growth in per capita energy consumption/CO2 emissions and implications going forward. This was presented in Ottawa to an investment group in September and to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in Albany during the same trip. A consensus emerged at the recent ASPO-USA meeting in Denver that peak oil arrived in 2008, and my recent communications with Colin Campbell, who brought the peak oil issue to widespread attention in the 1990’s, revealed that he is quite certain 2008 marked the all time high of world oil production. Notwithstanding this, the EIA and IEA, who are the  principal government agency forecasters, as well as heads of multinationals and OPEC, believe that global oil production can grow to more than 100 million barrels per day with sufficient investment, and that consumption of other fossil fuels can be expanded for the foreseeable future.
 
The refusal of governments to acknowledge the risks of peak oil in their planning brings to mind one of the requirements to avoid potentially catastrophic ramifications to critical resource shortages pointed out by Diamond in his famous book Collapse : "one of the choices has depended on the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions." It would appear that for now at least, mainstream world leaders will continue to pursue the growth paradigm until the bitter end, which unfortunately is doomed to failure on a finite planet, and wastes precious time and resources for an orderly transition to a lower impact, steady state paradigm which, given the finite nature of fossil fuels, we will get to whether we like it or not.

The Energy Sustainability Dilemma: Powering the Future in a Finite World 

David Hughes is a geoscientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada for nearly four decades, including  32 years with the Geological Survey of Canada as a scientist and research manager. He developed the National Coal Inventory to determine the availability and environmental constraints associated with Canada’s coal resources. As Team Leader for Unconventional Gas on the Canadian Gas Potential Committee, he coordinated the recent publication of a comprehensive assessment of Canada’s unconventional natural gas potential. Over the past decade, he has researched, published and lectured widely on global energy and sustainability issues in North America and internationally. He is a board member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas – Canada and is a Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute. He recently contributed to “Carbon Shift”, an anthology edited by Thomas Homer-Dixon on the twin issues of peak energy and climate change, and his work has been featured in Canadian Business, Walrus and other magazines, as well as through the popular press, radio, television and the internet. He is currently president of a consultancy dedicated to research on energy and sustainability issues.